Developing intercensal statewide population controls for labor force estimates

In March 2025, the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program introduced novel intercensal estimates of the civilian noninstitutional population (CNP), which are used to produce statewide estimates of employment and unemployment. These intercensal estimates reconcile decadal differences between population projections from one census count to the next. These differences between census counts, known as the error of closure, introduce breaks in the LAUS CNP time series each decade. In this article, we note the usage of population data in LAUS estimation, describe the demographic methods used to produce the new intercensal population series, and show the impact of the new data on current LAUS time series. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program produces monthly employment and unemployment estimates for approximately 7,500 subnational areas.1 The Current Population Survey (CPS), sponsored jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and BLS, is the official survey instrument for measuring the labor force in the United States.