Labor force and macroeconomic projections overview and highlights, 2023–33

Projections from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics continue to be influenced by demographic trends. These trends are projected to result in subdued labor force and employment growth over the 2023–33 projections period. This slower growth also affects gross domestic product (GDP), which is projected to grow at a modest annual rate of 1.9 percent through the 2023–33 projections period. Additionally, the labor force, employment, and GDP have recovered since the 2020 recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. This rebound leaves less room for growth as the economy was at or near full employment in 2023. Each year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes projections of labor force participation rates and growth rates for the population and the labor force for the next 10 years. Despite fluctuations in labor force participation over the past 2 years, growth rates for both the population and the labor force are projected to slow over the 2023–33 projections decade.