Economy Statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee

IntroductionRecent data suggest that U.S. economic growth resumed in the second quarter of 2025 and likely fully recovered from the modest headwinds that appeared in the first quarter. Monthly readings of payroll job creation were consistently stronger in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate has remained historically low at just over 4 percent. As of June, a total of 671,000 payroll jobs have been created during the first five months of this Administration. In addition, most inflation readings were stable-to-lower in the second quarter, with the exception of energy prices, which trended up against a backdrop of increased volatility. However, key drivers of inflation in recent years, such as inflation for housing and core non-energy services, continued to moderate. An expected pickup in productivity growth also should help dampen inflationary pressure.