Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee

November 4, 2025Letter to the SecretaryDear Mr. Secretary,Since the TBAC last met in late July, financial markets have exhibited low volatility, reflecting diminished uncertainty, resilient activity in both the US and global economy, and, more recently, a lack of market-moving US economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown. Equity prices continued to advance over the last three months, with the S&P 500 up 16.3% this year. Treasury yields moved lower as the Fed resumed rate cuts in September, with ten-year Treasury yields falling about 40 basis points to 4.0% and two-year Treasury yields declining to around 3.5%. After depreciating earlier this year, the broad trade-weighted US Dollar has been stable over the last three months.Measures of implied asset price volatility remain low, reflecting market expectations that low realized volatility will continue.