Economy Statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee

IntroductionEconomic data received through September 30, 2025, suggest that U.S. economic growth solidified in the third quarter of 2025 with steady business investment and consumer demand. Stock markets reached record highs during the quarter—and have set additional highs since—while earnings growth has been stable. Meanwhile, yields on U.S. Treasury notes and bills eased over the third quarter: the average yield on the 91-day bill was 11 basis points lower from the second quarter, while the 10-year note yield was 10 basis points lower. Yields have eased further over the last month, nearing 4.00 percent for both the 91-day and the 10-year issuances.Labor markets stabilized in July and August, with modest employment growth consistent with that of the second quarter. Forced deportation and voluntary self-deportation of illegal immigrants has reduced labor supply, but labor demand has similarly decreased. This has kept aggregate labor markets roughly in balance.